The solar market in 2024 experienced fierce price wars, with panel prices dropping drastically, even falling below cost levels. However, at the start of 2025, there are signs that solar panel prices may rise.
Is this price hike a sign of a shift in supply and demand dynamics, or is it a "test" by manufacturers? ChatGPT and DeepSeek have opposing views—where do you stand?
Round 1: Will Solar Panel Prices Really Increase in 2025?
ChatGPT: Clear signals of a price increase, the market is entering a recovery phase.
✅ Reasons:
Silicon material and wafer prices rising, pushing component costs up. The continuous increase in silicon material prices means the manufacturing cost of panels is rising, and manufacturers can no longer maintain the ultra-low prices from 2024.
Market demand revival, with end customers actively replenishing stock. The price collapse in 2024 led to many projects being postponed, but demand in Q1 of 2025 is picking up, with a replenishment wave underway.
Capacity adjustments, improving supply-demand balance. Some manufacturers began reducing inefficient capacity at the end of 2024, leading to a tightening of supply in the short term, supporting price increases.
ChatGPT’s viewpoint: Prices have already hit rock bottom; the market is rebounding, and prices will rise in 2025!
DeepSeek: The price increase is illusory, actual transaction prices may not rise.
❌ Counterarguments:
Inventory pressure remains high. The 2024 price war led to significant panel inventory accumulation, and some manufacturers still have unsold stock, needing to sell at lower prices.
Price increases are just "quotations," actual transaction prices remain low. Manufacturers are testing the market with higher quoted prices, but end customers are still waiting, and actual transaction prices may not rise significantly.
End customers have limited funds and won't easily accept higher prices. Investors in large ground-mounted power plants are still calculating IRR (internal rate of return) and will continue to pressure manufacturers for lower prices.
DeepSeek’s viewpoint: The price increase may be a "false alarm," and market prices are still in negotiation, with actual transaction prices unlikely to rise significantly!
Round 1 Summary:
ChatGPT believes that the recovery in demand and rising costs will drive prices up, while DeepSeek argues that inventory pressure and tight end customer budgets will suppress price increases. In the short term, there may be an increase in quoted prices, but actual transaction prices may remain low, creating a "quotations rise, actual prices stay low" scenario.
Round 2: Price Trends in the First Half of 2025—Recovery or Continued Price War?
ChatGPT: The market enters a healthy recovery phase, with prices stabilizing.
✅ Reasons:
Prices have reached their lowest point, and the industry won't return to price wars. Component prices in 2024 dropped below cost, causing many companies to lose money, and in 2025, the industry must return to rational pricing.
High-efficiency products still have a price premium. The demand for N-type (TOPCon, BC) panels continues to grow, especially in Europe, where they have strong pricing power.
Market confidence returns, and some customers are willing to accept small price increases. With many projects restarting, small price increases will align with market expectations.
ChatGPT’s viewpoint: The market will stabilize in the first half of 2025, with component prices gradually returning to normal levels!
DeepSeek: Market competition remains intense, and prices will still be divided.
❌ Counterarguments:
PERC panels will continue to drop in price. PERC has become an "old technology," and manufacturers will need to lower prices to clear stock. Price wars in the PERC sector will continue.
N-type panels face the risk of oversupply. Although the demand for TOPCon and HJT is strong, rapid capacity expansion may increase price pressure.
Industry reshuffling accelerates, and low-price competition cannot be avoided. Second and third-tier manufacturers will likely continue to offer low prices to survive, impacting overall market price trends.
DeepSeek’s viewpoint: High-end panels may stabilize in price, but PERC and other low-end products will continue to drop in price, and the market will show a clear divide.
Round 2 Summary:
ChatGPT believes the market will return to rationality in the first half of 2025, while DeepSeek believes competition will remain fierce, with a split in prices. The final trend may see N-type panels maintain stable prices, but PERC panels will still face price cuts.
Round 3: What About Prices in 2025 and Beyond—Will They Rise or Fall?
ChatGPT: Long-term demand is positive, and prices will steadily increase.
✅ Reasons:
Global installation demand continues to grow. In 2025, global solar installation is expected to reach 500GW, driving long-term market demand.
Policy support stabilizes prices. New energy subsidies and incentive policies in the U.S., Europe, and other regions will help support panel prices.
Industry consolidation reduces malicious competition. After the price war in 2024, industry concentration has increased, with leading manufacturers gaining more pricing power, meaning prices will not fluctuate wildly.
ChatGPT’s viewpoint: After 2025, prices will steadily increase, and the industry will enter a phase of healthy development!
DeepSeek: Oversupply of capacity remains a risk, and price pressure will persist.
❌ Counterarguments:
Component capacity is still excessive. By 2025, the global capacity for solar panels is expected to exceed 1000GW, while demand is only 500GW, leading to a severe supply-demand imbalance.
Uncertainty in U.S. and European policies. Changes in U.S. tariffs on Southeast Asia and slow inventory clearance in the European market may affect prices.
Leading companies can stabilize prices, but second and third-tier manufacturers will still engage in low-price competition. Intense market competition means low-price sales will likely remain the primary strategy for some manufacturers.
DeepSeek’s viewpoint: The market remains uncertain, and component prices will likely stay low with fluctuations in the future.
Round 3 Summary:
ChatGPT believes that industry consolidation and growing demand will push prices up, while DeepSeek argues that oversupply and market uncertainty will keep prices under pressure. The final trend will depend on the balance of supply and demand, policy changes, and industry consolidation.
Final Conclusion: Is the Price Increase at the Start of 2025 a Market Recovery or a Smoke Screen?
Key Insights:
In the short term, prices may rise in quotations, but actual transaction prices will be constrained by inventory and end customers' bargaining power, making the increase possibly just a market sentiment fluctuation.
In the first half of 2025, high-efficiency N-type, BC, and similar products are likely to remain stable, while PERC and traditional components may face price cuts, resulting in market divergence.
In the long run, industry consolidation and demand growth will drive prices upward, but supply-demand balance and policy changes will remain key variables.
What do you think?
Do you believe the price increase in 2025 is due to market recovery, or is it just a marketing strategy by manufacturers? Will transaction prices really rise? Feel free to share your thoughts!
