The latest! Forecasted Shipping Volumes of Top Solar Panel Companies in 2024

In the midst of the release of China's 2023 financial reports, various solar panel companies have successively disclosed their revenue, production capacity, shipping volume, and other situations from last year, and have set goals for their industry plans for 2024 to the public.

Specifically as below:

In 2023, whether from the shipping volume of 75GW or the planned production capacity of 138GW, Jinko unquestionably ranks first in the industry. Trina closely follows, ranking second in the industry with a shipping volume of 70GW. Longi's shipping volume is slightly higher than JA Solar, both hovering around 65GW. Canadian Solar and TW Solar have the same shipping volume, both at 30GW.

Looking at the entire solar panel sector, comparing production capacity with shipping volume, it can be seen that almost every company has inventory surplus, indicating that market demand is yet to be fully unleashed. Nevertheless, each company still expects about a 40% increase in shipping volume for 2024.

However, this is not blind optimism.

According to PV-Tech data, the current global photovoltaic module inventory is about 150GW. In the short term, there will be a certain price reduction range for solar panels to clear the inventory. This presents a good opportunity for traders and installers to stock up.

However, in the long term, given the current volatile environment, it's challenging to always keep production and demand in sync, requiring continual adjustments in the industry chain. Coupled with the global energy transition goals for 2030, solar energy remains the preferred choice for clean energy in most countries.

In the short term, there is a need for breathing space, but in the long run, the market still has strong absorption capacity.

According to IEA data, global solar energy's new installed capacity in 2023 ranges between 407.3GWdc and 446GWdc, a significant increase from the 236GW installed in 2022, bringing the total capacity to 1.6TW.

Among them, China has the highest increase, with an estimated additional installed capacity of between 235GW and 277GW, an increase of at least 125%. The EU is the second-largest market, with an additional installed capacity of 55.8GW, followed by the United States with 30GW. India follows closely with 16.6GW, followed by Germany with 14.3GW and Brazil with 11.9GW, also leading in global installed capacity.

From this perspective, the major global solar energy markets have not reduced their installation demand or expectations, but rather the supply and demand sides continue to tug-of-war over prices. What enterprises need to do is to survive 2024.

（source：PV-Tech）

Currently, according to the latest transaction price data, most N-type TOPCon solar panels have dropped to 1 yuan/W, and BC and HJT prices are also hovering around 1 yuan/W. Most PERC solar panels have dropped to 0.86 yuan/W.

This is obviously the lowest price in history, and profit margins have been compressed to near the limit. Coupled with the expansion plans of various enterprises mentioned earlier for 2024, we expect that after this wave, module prices will rebound to normal levels.

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